New Year Predictions

 Every year about this time, the popular press comes out with  predictions for the new year. We all know that no one has a  crystal ball but we read them anyway. Happily, Google never  forgets. Here are some of the predictions made for 2016.

• Trump falls out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination – Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio were the favorites to win.
• The S&P 500 will close between 2,000 and 2,200. As of December 20, 2016 we stand at 2,266 10% higher than the low end predictions of Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse, but not far short of the 2,300 called for by Oppenheimer.
• Interest rates were expected to rise by nearly 1% as the Federal reserve was predicted to increase rates 3 to 4 times during the year. Actual result – one rate increase for the 2016 calendar year, though former Morgan Stanley analyst Byron Wein nailed this one.

    So, read the predictions for 2017 with a healthy dose of skepticism, it’s just for fun.
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• Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch expect the S&P 500 to end 2017 at 2,300, on the other end of the spectrum Citi and Blackrock see the S&P 500 at 2,400.
• Barclay’s Capital sees the 10-year treasury bond yielding 2.4% while Federated Investors is looking for 3.0%
• Citi sees lackluster GDP growth of 1.8%, while Federated expects 3.0%.

The one thing we can all agree on is there will be some surprises along the way.

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